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    Question ID:   1987         Current Version: 1
Question: How is lightning detected? Can it be predicted?
Category: Science > Weather
Keywords: forecast, detect, predict, lightning
Type: other
Rating:(0 ratings)    Views: 297    Discussions: 0   In Watch Lists: 1  

 
    Answer:
Cloud-to-ground lightning network data have been collected in real-time since the late 1970's. The first uses were for forest fire detection and utilities. Other groups have found the network data useful in aerospace and military operations, explosives handling, aviation operations, communications, and meteorological research and applications.

Currently, cloud-to-ground and intra-cloud lightning flashes are detected by antennas and mapped in real-time across the entire U.S. by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), a system developed by the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology (NMIMT). THE NLDN consists of antennas that (a) detect the angle from ground strike points to an antenna (direction-finder antenna), (b) that detect the time it took for them to arrive at an antenna (time-of-arrival method), or (c) a combination of both detection methods.

Flashes have also been detected from space during the past few years by an optical sensor. This experimental satellite covers the earth twice a day in tropical regions. The satellite also detects flashes that do not strike the ground, but cannot tell the difference between ground strikes and cloud flashes.

Newer lightning mapping techniques show that some supercell thunderstorms have "lightning holes" where updrafts are located and precipitation is scarce. If these holes form, as suspected, just before a storm becomes severe, this information could alert forecasters to developing severe conditions.

Can lightning be predicted?

We can predict IF lightning will occur because we know that lightning always occurs in convection (thunderstorm). But, it is impossible to forecast individual strikes since lightning is so widespread, frequent and random. Our understanding of cloud electrification processes is still incomplete. While forecasters can't predict every strike, they can forecast the likelihood of intense lightning activity and show past lightning strike data. As scientists learn more about the electrical nature of thunderstorms, their findings may provide clues to the formation of other types of hazardous weather associated with thunderstorm environments.

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