Yes, factors such as changes in solar radiation, as well as the formation of stratospheric particles after volcanic eruptions, do influence the ozone layer. However, neither factor can explain the average decreases observed in global total ozone over the last two decades. If large volcanic eruptions occur in the coming decades, ozone depletion will increase for several years after the eruption.
Changes in solar radiation and increases in stratospheric particles from volcanic eruptions both affect the abundance of stratospheric ozone, but they have not caused the long-term decreases observed in total ozone.
Solar changes
The formation of stratospheric ozone is initiated by ultraviolet (UV) radiation coming from the Sun. As a result, an increase in the Sun's radiation output increases the amount of ozone in Earth's atmosphere. The Sun's radiation output and sunspot number vary over the well-known 11-year solar cycle. Observations over several solar cycles (since the 1960s) show that global total ozone levels vary by 1 to 2% between the maximum and minimum of a typical cycle. Changes in solar output at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, although much larger than changes in total solar output, are often used to show when periods of maximum and minimum total output occur. The Sun's output has gone through maximum values around 1969, 1980, 1991, and 2002. In 2006, the solar output was decreasing towards a minimum.
The Solar Cycle, Global Ozone, and Volcanic Eruptions

Total ozone values have decreased beginning in the early 1980s (see middle panel). The ozone values shown are 3-month averages corrected for seasonal effects. Incoming solar radiation, which produces ozone in the stratosphere, changes on a well-recognized 11-year cycle. The amount of solar radiation at a wavelength of 10.7-cm is often used to document the 11-year cycle (see top panel). A comparison of the top and middle panels indicates that the cyclic changes in solar output cannot account for the long-term decreases in ozone. Volcanic eruptions occurred frequently in the 1965 to 2005 period. The largest recent eruptions are El Chichón (1982) and Mt. Pinatubo (1991) (see red arrows in bottom panel). Large volcanic eruptions are monitored by the decreases in solar transmission to Earth's surface that occur because new particles are formed in the stratosphere from volcanic sulfur emissions (see bottom panel). These particles increase ozone depletion only temporarily because they do not remain in the stratosphere for more than a few years. A comparison of the middle and bottom panels indicates that large volcanic eruptions also cannot account for the long-term decreases found in global total ozone.
Over the last two decades, average total ozone has decreased over the globe. Average values in recent years show about 4% depletion from pre-1980 values. The ozone values shown are 3-month averages corrected for seasonal effects but not for solar effects. Over the same period, changes in solar output show the expected 11-year cycle but do not show a decrease with time. For this reason, the long-term decreases in global ozone cannot result from changes in solar output alone. Most examinations of long-term ozone changes presented in this and previous international scientific assessments quantitatively account for the influence of the 11-year solar cycle.
Past volcanoes
Large volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gases directly into the stratosphere, causing new sulfate particles to be formed. The particles initially form in the stratosphere above and downwind of the volcano location and then often spread throughout the hemisphere or globally as air is transported by stratospheric winds. The presence of volcanic particles in the stratosphere is shown in observations of solar transmission through the atmosphere. When large amounts of particles are present in the stratosphere, transmission of solar radiation is significantly reduced. The large eruptions of El Chichón (1982) and Mt. Pinatubo (1991) are recent examples of events that temporarily reduced solar transmission.
Laboratory measurements and stratospheric observations have shown that chemical reactions on the surface of volcanically produced particles increase ozone destruction by increasing the amounts of the highly reactive chlorine gas, chlorine monoxide (ClO). The amount of ClO produced is proportional to the total abundance of reactive chlorine in the stratosphere. Ozone depletion increases as a consequence of increased ClO. The most recent large eruption was that of Mt. Pinatubo, which resulted in up to a 10-fold increase in the number of particles available for surface reactions. Both El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo increased global ozone depletion for a few years. After a few years, however, the effect of volcanic particles on ozone is diminished by their gradual removal from the stratosphere by natural air circulation. Because of particle removal, the two large volcanic eruptions of the last two decades cannot account for the long-term decreases observed in ozone over the same period.
Future volcanoes
Observations and atmospheric models indicate that the record-low ozone levels observed in 1992-1993 resulted from the large number of particles produced by the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, combined with the relatively large amounts of reactive halogen gases present in the stratosphere in the 1990s. If the Mt. Pinatubo eruption had occurred before 1980, changes to global ozone would have been much smaller than observed in 1992-1993 because the abundances of reactive halogen gases in the stratosphere were smaller. In the early decades of the 21st century, the abundance of halogen source gases will still be substantial in the global atmosphere. If large volcanic eruptions occur in these early decades, ozone depletion will increase for several years. If an eruption larger than Mt. Pinatubo occurs, ozone losses could be larger than previously observed and persist longer. Only later in the 21st century when halogen gas abundances have declined close to pre-1980 values will the effect of volcanic eruptions on ozone be lessened.
Source: NOAA
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